France new-build housing: 52% of developers plan new projects in October 2026

Only 52% of French developers are weighing new projects, and their price expectations are the weakest since 2015, widening buyers' room to negotiate.

The facts

52% of French real-estate developers were weighing new housing programmes in October 2026, against 53% in July and an average of 62% since July 1991, INSEE reported on 23 October 2026.
The balance of opinion on new dwelling demand fell to -43 from -37 in July, its lowest in two years; the average since 1991 is -13. A negative balance means more developers reported falling demand than rising demand.
Expected housing starts dropped to -27 from -20, with homes built for sale at -41 and homes built for rent, mainly social housing, at -8, the latter down from +1 in July.
Developers' expected average selling price stood at -24, down from -15 in July and the weakest reading since April 2015; its long-run average is +6.
Reported down payments from applicants came in at -26, the lowest since January 2015, and the balance on buyers' financing capacity was -39 against a -21 average.
The survey was collected between 25 September and 20 October 2026 and reports balances of opinion in percentage points, not measured prices or transaction counts.

Developers expect to cut asking prices. Entry into French new-builds gets cheaper, with more room to negotiate.
Rental income decides whether a discount pays: Glopra's France figures are 3,642 USD per square metre and 16.23 USD per square metre a month, about 5.3% gross, before an effective 27.5% tax on rental income.
Financing capacity is an outlook measure, and at -39 against its -21 average it thins the pool of mortgage-funded rivals, which widens the edge of a buyer paying cash.
An owner already holding French property meets the same signal on the exit side: expected selling prices at -24, the weakest since April 2015, set the price of the new-build stock a resale competes with.

Readings come quarterly, in January, April, July and October, so the next one lands in January 2027.
One limit matters: a balance of opinion records how many developers report a direction, not by how much. INSEE publishes no euro price and no unit count in this release.
The split to watch is -41 for homes built for sale against -8 for homes built for rent, mainly social: the two moved apart this quarter, after sitting at -35 and +1 in July.

Sources: INSEE https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/9100750