Japan new condominium supply falls 16.8% in Q3 2026
Tokyo Kantei counted 14,182 new condominium units in Japan in Q3 2026, 16.8% fewer than a year earlier and the first quarter below 15,000 in two years.
The facts
- Tokyo Kantei counted 14,182 newly supplied condominium units across Japan in the third quarter of 2026, -16.8% against the 17,052 of the third quarter of 2025 and 12.9% below the 16,278 of the second quarter.
- That is the first quarter below 15,000 units in eight quarters.
- Second-hand distribution moved the other way: 103,106 units, 0.4% above the third quarter of 2025 and 1.1% above the second.
- The used market was worth 5,362,168 million yen, 20.9% more than a year earlier, against 1,197,566 million yen for new supply, 4.3% less.
- In Greater Tokyo the asking price of a new condominium reached 5,057,000 yen per tsubo, the Japanese unit of about 3.3 square metres, up 5.1% on the quarter; used condominiums reached 3,567,000 yen per tsubo, up 4.0%.
- New supply fell 15.3% on the year in Kinki, to 3,252 units, and 17.3% in Chubu, to 1,351 units; Greater Tokyo fell 12.6% to 6,820.
What it means for your money
- Less new stock and dearer asking prices. Entering Greater Tokyo new build costs 5.1% more than a quarter ago.
- The second-hand route is where the volume sits. With 103,106 used units against 14,182 new ones, a buyer competes in a market more than seven times larger.
- Glopra draws its Tokyo row from this same Tokyo Kantei series and puts the 23 wards at 11,800 USD per square metre, with a Bubble Risk score of 72 of 100 in the elevated band. The quarterly rise lands on a valuation already stretched against its own history.
- For a landlord already holding, a used market worth 20.9% more than a year ago supports the exit price, and thinner new supply is the earliest observable signal of future competing stock.
What to watch
- Tokyo Kantei reports that used prices in the under-five-year age band fell year on year for the first time in 16 quarters. The next quarterly report, published on the first business day of February, shows whether that holds.
- The counting method for used distribution changed from the first-quarter 2026 report and past data was revised, so comparisons across that break are not on one basis.
- Price levels rose in Tokyo and Kanagawa this quarter; the report gives no district-level figures.
Sources: Tokyo Kantei https://www.kantei.ne.jp/news/release/9551/