GLOPRAGlobal Property Radar

US home prices fall 0.4% in October 2026, first annual decline in 3 years

The median US home-sale price fell to $388,634 in October 2026, a 0.4% annual drop and the first in three years, as pending sales fell 15.1%.

The facts

  • The median US home-sale price was $388,634 in October 2026, a year-on-year change of -0.4% — the first decline since May 2023, against a 2.5% gain two months earlier.
  • Pending home sales fell 3.6% from September, seasonally adjusted, to 300,430: 15.1% below a year earlier and the lowest since 2013 apart from April 2020. Closed sales fell 2.1% on the month to 274,987, the lowest since December 2023.
  • The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.33% across October, against 6.86% the month before, a three-year high.
  • Homes for sale rose 0.9% from September to 1,526,984, the most since early 2020, while new listings fell 1% to 372,431 — the stock is building because homes sell more slowly, not because more are being listed.
  • Some 61% of homes sold below the original list price, 36% had at least one price drop, and about 15% of pending sales fell out of contract.
  • Prices fell nationally yet rose in more than half of the 50 most populous metropolitan areas: San Francisco +16.8%, New Brunswick, NJ +7.7% and Pittsburgh +6.5% against Austin -6.5%, Seattle -5.1% and Nashville -4.9%.

What it means for your money

  • Entry prices are 0.4% lower than a year ago and 61% of homes sold below asking, but financing above 7% takes back much of that.
  • Glopra's figures put the US average home price at $2,400 per square metre, 28.9% above its level five years ago, so an annual dip of 0.4% gives back almost none of that run.
  • For an owner already holding, the pressure has moved to the exit: pending sales at multi-year lows and roughly 15% of deals collapsing mean a sale now takes longer and closes nearer the buyer's number.
  • Location decides the outcome more than the national figure does: a home in San Francisco was worth 16.8% more over the year while one in Austin was worth 6.5% less.

What to watch

  • Whether homes for sale keep climbing while new listings shrink: the next Redfin monthly report settles it.
  • The 7.33% is Redfin's own October average, not a rate available now: Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed stood at 7.18% in the week to 5 November.
  • The share of pending sales that collapses before closing, about 15% in October: a higher reading means buyers are walking away more often.

Sources: Redfin https://www.redfin.com/news/home-prices-decline-october-2026; PR Newswire https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/october-marks-the-first-month-in-3-years-with-a-decline-in-us-home-sale-prices-according-to-redfin-302934365.html

Market data: New York (metro area) · Chicago (metro area) · San Francisco (metro area) · Miami (metro area)