GLOPRAGlobal Property Radar

US mortgage refinance applications run 56% below a year ago

US refinance applications fell another 8% on the week and sit 56% below a year ago, while the average 30-year fixed rate reached 7.49%.

The facts

  • The change in the Mortgage Bankers Association refinance index against the same week a year earlier was -56%, for the week ending 2 October 2026; the index also fell 8% from the previous week.
  • The market composite index of application volume fell 4.2% on the week, seasonally adjusted, and 4% unadjusted.
  • The purchase index fell 2% seasonally adjusted and 2% unadjusted, and stood 15% below the same week a year earlier. Joel Kan of the association said purchase activity decreased across all loan types, with FHA purchase applications falling the most, down 6%.
  • The average contract rate on 30-year fixed loans within the conforming limit of 832,750 dollars was 7.49% with 0.84 points, against 7.30% with 0.75 points a week earlier. Kan said rates "moved to their highest level in almost three years last week".
  • The refinance share of applications fell to 37.0% from 38.3%. The adjustable-rate share was 10.3%, the FHA share 16.4%, the VA share 11.8% and the USDA share 0.5%.
  • Other quoted averages: 30-year jumbo 7.39%, 30-year FHA 7.14%, 15-year fixed 6.71%, 5/1 adjustable 6.43%.

What it means for your money

  • Leveraged entry costs more. A 30-year loan within the conforming limit carried 7.49% last week, against 7.30% a week earlier.
  • If you already hold a US mortgage, the refinance route out of it has largely closed: refinance applications are 56% below last year and their share of all applications is down to 37.0%.
  • Our own US figures for August 2026, a typical value of 369,678 dollars against a typical asking rent of 1,948 dollars a month, work out at a 6.32% gross rental yield.
  • Buying demand is weak across loan types, not just one: purchase applications are 15% below last year, and the FHA purchase segment fell 6% on the week.

What to watch

  • The two series to read in the next weekly survey are the refinance share and the 30-year contract rate.
  • The survey measures applications, not completed loans, so a change in applications is not yet a change in transactions.
  • The rates quoted are contract rates with points, and the points are part of the cost: 0.84 on the loan within the conforming limit last week, against 0.75 a week earlier.

Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2026/september/mba-newslink-wednesday-oct-7-2026/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey/

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