Dubai Home Prices Slipped Below Last Year's Level in August, a First Since 2021

Cavendish Maxwell put Dubai's average residential price at Dh1,636 per sq ft in August, down 1.7% on the year — the first annual fall since February 2021.

Dubai's average residential price stood at Dh1,636 per square foot in August 2026, and measured against the same month last year the change was -1.7%, according to valuation firm Cavendish Maxwell. That is the emirate's first annual price decline since February 2021, when pandemic restrictions were still suppressing demand. Over the latest three months prices were down 1.3%.

August volumes cooled alongside prices

Roughly 10,900 homes changed hands in August for about Dh23.4 billion, 14% fewer than in July. For the first eight months of 2026 the running total is close to Dh270 billion, around 24% below the same stretch of 2025 — a reminder that the cooling showed up in transaction values well before it reached the price index. Off-plan units accounted for roughly 75% of August's residential sales, so the headline series is weighted heavily toward launch pricing rather than completed stock. Ronan Arthur, who heads residential valuation at Cavendish Maxwell, described a market that is softening and entering a more mature cycle after several years of steep gains.

Emaar's founder points at 2027 supply

Speaking at the AIM Congress in Dubai on 7 September, Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar said prices could see a 5 to 10 per cent adjustment as significant new supply reaches the market by 2027. He also gave unusually specific figures on buyer behaviour: unit cancellations ran at about 1,000 during the recent period of regional tension, against a normal average nearer 700, and fell back to 550 after the ceasefire announcement. Alabbar said his company is still collecting close to 96 per cent of scheduled payments, which points to stress concentrated in new demand rather than in existing payment plans.

How the fall sits against Glopra's own Dubai numbers

Glopra's most recent Dubai snapshot, dated 17 August 2026, puts the city average at $7,244 per square metre with a gross rental yield of 5.53% and 12-month price growth already flat at 0.1%. The August index did not turn from a boom, in other words — it turned from a plateau that had been in place for months. Our Bubble Risk score for Dubai stands at 81 out of 100, in the high band, which measures how far prices have run relative to incomes and rents since 2021 rather than forecasting what comes next. The UAE levies no personal income tax on rental income, so gross and net yields are the same number there, and that has been a large part of the market's draw for overseas buyers.

What would settle the question

Two things would move the picture quickly. If the completion pipeline Alabbar referenced lands on schedule through 2027, the supply-overhang argument strengthens and the -1.7% reading becomes the start of a longer adjustment. If regional conditions stay calm and cancellations hold near the 550 level he cited, demand may absorb more of that supply than the current volume data implies. Both readings are compatible with a single month at -1.7%; neither is settled by it.

Sources: Khaleej Times (Cavendish Maxwell data), 7 Sep 2026 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/property/dubai-real-estate-home-house-prices-fall-first-time-in-over-5-years; Khaleej Times (Mohamed Alabbar at AIM Congress 2026), 7 Sep 2026 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/dubai-property-prices-could-adjust-5-10-as-new-supply-comes-by-2027-says-alabbar

Market data: Abu Dhabi · Ras Al Khaimah · United Arab Emirates · Dubai