France Authorised 29,577 New Homes in July While Starts Jumped 8.9%

France authorised 29,577 dwellings in July 2026, down 2.5% on June, while housing starts rose 8.9%. Twelve-month permits sit 9.5% below the five-year norm.

France's official construction statistics service, SDES, released its July data on 28 August. Builders and developers were granted permission for 29,577 dwellings during the month, 2.5% fewer than in June on seasonally and working-day adjusted terms. Starts moved the opposite way: 27,677 homes actually broke ground, an 8.9% monthly increase.

A pipeline still running below its own five-year norm

The single-month readings matter less than the rolling total, and that total is where the French picture stays uncomfortable. Across the twelve months to July 2026, 370,673 dwellings were authorised nationwide. SDES benchmarks that against the average of the preceding five years, and the shortfall is 9.5%.

There is a second, more constructive way to read the same file. Monthly authorisations across January to July 2026 ran 1.4% above the monthly average recorded for the whole of 2025. France is not back to its long-run rate of permitting, but it is no longer sliding away from it.

Starts are the volatile half of the series

The monthly starts series has swung sharply through 2026: up 17.8% in May, down 5.6% in June, then up 8.9% in July. Any single print should be treated as noise around a trend rather than a turning point. SDES attributes the June softness principally to a dip in authorisations for collective housing, with permits for individual houses close to stable — a distinction that matters, because multi-unit schemes carry longer lead times between permit and shovel.

That lag is the mechanism worth watching. July's stronger starts are being fed by permits granted months ago, at a moment when the permit pipeline was already thin. If authorisations stay 9.5% below the five-year average, the starts series eventually has to follow.

What thin supply means for prices

Glopra's market file puts French housing at $3,419 per square metre nationally, a transaction-based figure covering the full stock rather than the Paris resale segment alone, with a gross rental yield of 4.83%. Annual price growth is running at just 0.1% in local-currency terms.

That combination — restricted new supply alongside almost no price movement — describes a market where the constraint is demand rather than land. French buyers face roughly 9.1% in total transaction costs and an effective tax on rental income of about 27.5% in the standardised non-resident case, both toward the heavier end of the European markets Glopra tracks. Our Bubble Risk score for France is 39, in the moderate band, reflecting valuation ratios that have already corrected in real terms.

The balanced reading is that a persistent supply shortfall gives medium-term support to prices, while high entry costs and flat nominal growth cap the near-term return. Anyone modelling French residential returns should note that the five-year nominal price change of 2.0% is strongly negative once consumer inflation over the same window is deducted.

Sources: SDES, French Ministry for Ecological Transition, 28 Aug 2026 https://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/construction-de-logements-resultats-fin-juillet-2026-france-entiere

Market data: France