BBVA Expects Spanish House Prices to Rise 12% in 2026 While Sales Fall 7.3%
BBVA Research forecasts Spanish home prices up 12% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, sales down 7.3% this year, and a cumulative housing deficit near 885,000 units.
BBVA Research published a housing forecast on 13 August that sets prices and volumes moving in opposite directions: Spanish home prices up 12.0% across 2026 while transactions fall 7.3%. For 2027 the bank projects a cooling to 5.7% price growth with sales recovering marginally, up 0.6% to just above 700,000 operations.
A forecast of double-digit price growth alongside falling sales only makes sense under one condition, and BBVA states it plainly: there is not enough housing to buy.
The supply arithmetic behind the number
BBVA expects building permits to rise 10.1% this year and 12.6% next. Housing starts move from 139,000 units in 2025 to 153,000 in 2026 and 170,000 in 2027. Set against that, the bank projects 223,000 new households forming in 2026 and 217,000 in 2027.
Even in 2027, on the bank's own optimistic construction path, household formation exceeds starts by roughly 47,000 units — and starts are not completions, which lag by two to three years. BBVA puts the cumulative shortfall at around 885,000 units by 2027. Residential investment rises from 5.7% of GDP in 2026 to 6.0% in 2027, still modest by the standards of Spain's pre-2008 construction cycle.
Where the forecast meets the current data
Glopra's Spain snapshot of 23 July 2026 records a national average of $2,331 per square metre with twelve-month price growth of 12.8% — close enough to BBVA's full-year 12.0% projection that the bank is essentially forecasting the current run-rate to hold rather than calling a turn. Gross rental yield sits at 5.45% nationally.
The city-level spread matters more than the national figure for anyone buying. Madrid is at $6,850 per square metre with a 5.04% gross yield, Barcelona at $6,002 with 7.40%, Valencia at $3,839 with 5.99%.
The risk the forecast does not price
Our bubble risk score for Spain is 61 out of 100, in the elevated band. At city level the readings diverge sharply: Madrid 76, Barcelona 60, Valencia 83 — and Valencia's is the highest in our Spanish set, which is also the city that has been rising fastest. These scores measure how far prices have travelled relative to each market's own history on incomes, rents and credit. A structural supply shortage is a real and durable driver of price. It is also the argument that has preceded most housing corrections, because a shortage explains why prices rose and says nothing about what buyers can afford to pay next. BBVA's own forecast has price growth halving between 2026 and 2027 without any change in the deficit.
Sources: BBVA Research via idealista https://www.idealista.com/news/inmobiliario/vivienda/2026/08/13/910033-la-venta-de-viviendas-caera-un-7-3-en-2026-con-incrementos-de-precios-del-12-segun