Tokyo New Condominium Prices Fell 9.1% per Square Metre in August as Supply Dropped 12.4%
Developers released 1,140 new condominiums around Tokyo in August 2026, 12.4% fewer than a year earlier, and the average price per square metre fell 9.1%.
Developers released 1,140 new condominium units across the Tokyo metropolitan region in August 2026, 161 fewer than the 1,301 of August 2025 and a fall of 12.4%. The average price per square metre came in at 1,444,000 yen, down 144,000 yen or 9.1% on the year, while the average price per unit slipped 5.4% to 97.7 million yen. The Real Estate Economic Institute published the survey on 17 September 2026.
Half the region sold well, half did not
The first-month contract rate, the share of newly released units placed under contract within a month, was 61.1% for the region as a whole, 4.0 points lower than a year earlier. That single figure hides a split that is wide even by Tokyo standards. Tokyo's 23 wards took 478 units, 41.9% of the total, and sold 72.4% of them. The rest of Tokyo Prefecture released 173 units and sold 15.0% of them, a gap of 57.4 points inside one prefecture.
The outer prefectures did not follow the capital's own periphery down. Chiba released 247 units and contracted 70.0%; Kanagawa released 140 units at 69.3%; Saitama released 102 units at 53.9%. The weakest corner of the month was not the furthest one.
The average price is written by a handful of addresses
Tokyo's central six wards accounted for 217 units, 19.0% of everything released in the region, at an average of 181.13 million yen and 2,774,000 yen per square metre. The 23 wards as a whole averaged 2,122,000 yen per square metre; the rest of Tokyo Prefecture managed 961,000 yen and Chiba 948,000 yen. The regional average of 1,444,000 yen sits between those extremes without describing any of them.
Buildings of twenty storeys or more accounted for 12 projects and 244 units and contracted 82.0%, the strongest segment of the month. Some 909 units, 79.7% of the total, were registered for Flat 35 mortgage lending, and unsold stock stood at 6,610 units at the end of August. The institute expects about 1,500 units to be released in September.
Kansai moved the other way
The Kinki region released 517 units, down 44.2% from 927 a year earlier. The institute notes that this is the lowest figure for an August since 1993, when 502 units were released. Prices there rose rather than fell: the average unit gained 9.2% to 59.47 million yen and the price per square metre rose 7.9% to 972,000 yen. The contract rate was 67.3%, 3.5 points lower than a year earlier, and unsold stock stood at 3,141 units. Two of Japan's largest markets therefore moved in opposite directions on price in the same month, on supply that shrank in both.
What this sits on top of
Glopra's market data prices used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards at USD 11,800.30 per square metre, with asking rent of USD 33.48 per square metre a month. That is a gross rental yield of 3.40%, or 3.18% after the 6.72% effective tax on rental income. Those prices are up 9.3% in yen over twelve months but only 3.7% in dollars, because the yen lost 5.1% over the same period; across ten years the gap is wider still, 73.2% in yen against 25.9% in dollars. Transaction costs run to 10.9%, and the bubble-risk score of 72 sits in the elevated band.
The national row is a different animal. It carries a price of USD 3,307.20 per square metre for used condominiums, derived from the Japan Housing Finance Agency's Flat 35 borrower survey, and no rental yield at all, because no Japanese publisher issues a national residential rent that can be paired with a national price from the same source and the same period. That absence is recorded rather than filled.
Sources: Real Estate Economic Institute, Tokyo metropolitan new condominium market, August 2026, published 17 September 2026 https://www.fudousankeizai.co.jp/share/mansion/687/za4cO8m1.pdf; Real Estate Economic Institute, Kinki new condominium market, August 2026, published 17 September 2026 https://www.fudousankeizai.co.jp/share/mansion/686/za4cO8m2.pdf