Tokyo Used-Condo Sales Fell for a Fourth Month in July as Resale Prices Turn Negative
REINS logged 3,638 Greater Tokyo used-condo contracts in July, down 8.6% on the year, with the unit price down 1.5% and inventory at 47,151 listings.
Contracts on second-hand condominiums across Greater Tokyo fell to 3,638 in July 2026, down 8.6% year on year and the fourth consecutive monthly decline, according to figures the REINS network published on 10 August. Prices have now followed volumes down: the average contracted price slipped 0.7% to ¥52.67 million and the price per square metre fell 1.5% to about ¥841,700. Inventory stood at 47,151 listings against 16,474 new ones added during the month.
REINS is the designated real-estate information network operating under Japan's transport ministry, and its monthly series covers Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba — the four-prefecture capital region.
Detached houses went the other way
Second-hand detached houses recorded 1,738 contracts, down a much milder 1.9%, and the average price rose 0.6% to ¥39.33 million — a seventh consecutive monthly increase. The divergence is real, though detached samples are smaller and more sensitive to which properties happen to transact in a given month, so a single month's 0.6% should not be read as a trend on its own. Four straight months of falling condo volumes is the sturdier signal.
Inventory is the number to watch next. At 47,151 listings against 3,638 monthly contracts, Greater Tokyo is carrying close to thirteen months of standing condo supply on current absorption — a ratio that puts pressure on asking prices if it persists into the autumn.
New-build and resale are telling opposite stories
This is where care is needed, including with our own figures. Glopra's Tokyo series shows prices up 9.3% in yen over the past twelve months, on a city average of $11,134 per square metre and a 3.59% gross rental yield. REINS shows the resale unit price down 1.5% in a single month, year on year.
Both are accurate. They describe different segments over different windows. The new-build market has been setting records — Tokyo-area new condominium prices hit an all-time high in the first half of 2026 — while the resale market has been softening since spring, and our twelve-month figure spans a period in which the new-build surge dominated. Our city-average price level is also built on a broader and more prime-weighted basis than REINS's four-prefecture resale sample, so the two price levels are not directly comparable and should not be set side by side as though they were.
The currency does most of the work
For a foreign buyer the yen number is not the return. Tokyo prices up 9.3% in yen translate to minus 2.2% in dollars over the same twelve months, and Japan's national figure of plus 8.0% in yen becomes minus 3.3%. An investor whose base currency is the dollar has lost ground on a market that rose. Our effective non-resident rental tax for Japan is 6.72%, among the lowest in developed Asia, which leaves the 3.59% Tokyo gross yield at roughly 3.3% net. Our bubble score for Tokyo is 72, in the elevated band.
Sources: REINS / East Japan Real Estate Information Network, Monthly Market Watch July 2026 (10 Aug 2026) https://www.reins.or.jp/pdf/trend/mw/mw_202607_summary.pdf; REINS release index https://www.reins.or.jp/new/