US New-Home Sales Fell to 607,000 in July as Supply Reached 9.6 Months

New single-family home sales fell 10.5% in July to a 607,000 annual rate, and 488,000 unsold homes now equal 9.6 months of supply, US Census data show.

The US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported on 25 August that new single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July 2026, down 10.5% from June's 678,000 and 6.3% below the 648,000 pace recorded in July 2025. Inventory moved the other way. A seasonally adjusted 488,000 new homes stood unsold at the end of the month, 1.9% more than in June, enough to cover 9.6 months of sales at the July rate — up from 8.5 months a month earlier and 9.2 months a year ago.

Read the error bars before the headline

Both headline changes carry unusually wide confidence intervals. The monthly drop is published as 10.5% plus or minus 14.0 percentage points, and the annual comparison as 6.3% plus or minus 19.6 points, which means neither is statistically distinguishable from no change on a single month of data. Census guidance is that new-home sales typically need several months of readings before a direction can be stated with confidence. What the release does establish is the level, and 607,000 keeps the market inside the narrow band it has occupied through 2026. Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said after the release that single-family construction is on track for a second consecutive annual decline in 2026.

The median is falling while the average climbs

The median new-home price came in at $393,800, down 2.3% from June and 0.9% from July 2025, the lowest median since July 2021. The average price went the other way, up 4.1% on the month and 5.4% on the year to $508,800. That divergence is a composition story rather than a discount story. Sam Williamson at First American calculated that 53% of July's sales closed below $400,000, against 50% a year earlier, as builders shifted toward smaller floor plans and leaned on rate buydowns, incentives and outright price cuts to clear standing stock. The South absorbed 62.3% of national sales, keeping the cheaper end of the country over-represented in the mix. Orphe Divounguy of Zillow described the picture as demand cooling from pandemic frenzy to ordinary rather than collapsing.

What a 9.6-month overhang means for yield buyers

Nine and a half months of supply is a builders' number, not a resale number, and the two markets price differently. Glopra's latest United States snapshot puts the national benchmark at roughly $2,454 per square metre on a 6.71% gross rental yield, with prices 2.2% higher than a year ago — a market where rental income, not capital appreciation, carries most of the return. Miami, tracked separately, sits at about $5,802 per square metre on a 6.84% gross yield with prices up 1.8% year on year. A builder's incentive on a new house in an exurban submarket does not flow straight through to those figures, because new-build pricing starts well above the national average and the stock most income investors buy is existing housing.

The number to follow into September

Months' supply is the figure worth tracking. It has now widened for two consecutive months on a rising inventory count rather than a collapsing sales count, which is the milder of the two ways that ratio can move. If completions keep arriving while the 607,000 sales pace holds, the ratio climbs mechanically and builder pricing power erodes further. Nothing in the July data settles that question — with a plus or minus 14.0 point interval on the monthly change, one month cannot be read as a turn.

Sources: US Census Bureau & HUD, New Residential Sales July 2026, 25 Aug 2026 https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf; HousingWire, 25 Aug 2026 https://www.housingwire.com/articles/new-home-demand-swoons-even-as-sales-prices-hit-a-5-year-low/

Market data: United States · Miami