Bank Indonesia: Home Prices Up Just 0.69% in Q2, But the Sales Slump Has Nearly Stopped
Bank Indonesia's Q2 survey shows primary-market home prices up 0.69% year on year, while the sales decline eased sharply from −25.67% to −2.36%.
Indonesian residential prices in the primary market rose 0.69% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, barely ahead of the 0.62% recorded in the first quarter, according to Bank Indonesia's Residential Property Price Survey reported on 7 August. The far larger move was in volumes: sales fell 2.36% year on year, against a 25.67% collapse three months earlier. The price line has been flat for a year; the demand line has stopped falling off a cliff.
The survey covers developers in eighteen cities and measures the primary market only — newly built stock sold by developers, not resale.
Almost no movement in any segment
Large houses rose 0.68% year on year, with the index at 108.41, an improvement on the previous quarter's 0.50%. Small houses gained 0.49%, index 113.89, decelerating from 0.61%. Medium houses were broadly flat at an index of 114.01. Three segments, three readings under 0.7%, and no clear direction between them: this is a market moving sideways in nominal terms, which in real terms means it is losing value every quarter.
The financing detail in the survey is the structural point. Developers fund 73.28% of their construction from internal capital rather than bank credit, and 70.05% of buyers purchase with a KPR mortgage. A development sector that self-funds at that rate is insulated from rate moves but has little capacity to build through a downturn — supply responds slowly in both directions.
Our own figure lands in the same place
Glopra's Indonesian series shows prices up 0.62% over the past twelve months, against Bank Indonesia's 0.69% for the second quarter. Two independently built measures arriving within seven hundredths of a percentage point of each other is about as good a corroboration as this asset class produces, and it means the flatness is a property of the market rather than of any one methodology.
What that flatness costs a foreign owner is visible only in dollars. Indonesian prices up 0.62% in rupiah are down 8.7% in dollars over the same twelve months. The nominal stability is real; the currency has taken roughly nine percent off it.
Yield is what the market pays you
On a national average of $2,113 per square metre, our Indonesian gross rental yield is 8.3% — among the highest in our Asian coverage. The 20% effective non-resident rental tax in our standardised case brings that to about 6.6% net, which is still a strong income return, and in a market with no capital growth the income is the entire case.
Bali sits differently and should not be read off the national line: $2,341 per square metre on a 5.8% gross yield, a materially lower income return than the country as a whole. We carry that Bali figure at low confidence — the underlying data for the island is thin, and we would rather say so than present a precise-looking number we cannot stand behind. Our bubble score for Indonesia is 73, in the elevated band.
Sources: CNN Indonesia (Bank Indonesia Residential Property Price Survey Q2 2026, 7 Aug 2026) https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20260807120831-92-1389667/survei-bi-harga-properti-residensial-naik-tipis-kuartal-ii-2026; ANTARA https://m.antaranews.com/amp/berita/5683997/survei-bi-catat-harga-properti-residensial-triwulan-ii-naik-terbatas