Portuguese House Prices Rose 16.5% in the Second Quarter as Sales Volumes Kept Falling
Portugal's house price index rose 16.5% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 17.8% three months earlier, while 40,142 homes changed hands, 6.4% fewer.
Portugal's official house price index rose 16.5% over the year in the second quarter of 2026, slower than the 17.8% recorded three months earlier, while 40,142 dwellings changed hands, 6.4% fewer than in the same quarter of 2025. It is the second consecutive quarter in which price growth has eased. Figures from the national statistics institute INE as reported by ECO, Observador and Dinheiro Vivo; the primary release could not be accessed at the time of writing.
Existing homes remain the expensive end of the market
Existing dwellings were 18.0% dearer than a year earlier, against 12.3% for newly built ones. Measured against the first quarter of 2026 rather than against 2025, the overall index still gained 3.6%. The deceleration therefore sits in the annual comparison, not in the quarter itself: prices are still climbing quarter to quarter, but against a base that has already moved a long way.
Fewer sales, more money
The 40,142 transactions recorded between April and June were 6.4% below the same period of 2025, yet the total value of those deals reached 10.7 billion euros, 4.2% more than a year earlier. Fewer homes sold for more money is the arithmetic of a market where supply, not demand, is the binding constraint.
Buyers domiciled abroad accounted for 1,890 dwellings, 4.7% of all sales and 10.3% fewer than a year earlier. That fall cuts against the common assumption that foreign demand is what keeps Portuguese prices climbing: the annual rate stayed above 16% in a quarter when non-resident purchases shrank.
A second read from the asking-price side
A faster-moving view of the same market comes from advertised prices. The national asking-price aggregate stood at 3,718 US dollars per square metre in August 2026, with advertised rents at 20.98 dollars per square metre a month. That pairing gives a gross yield of 6.77%, or 6.09% after the 10% reduced rate Portugal applies to long-term residential lets. Over ten years the asking-price series is up 171.6%, and 72.3% over five.
Why the two numbers differ, and why that is not a contradiction
The readings are built on different foundations and cover different periods. The INE index is assembled from completed transactions and covers April to June 2026. The asking-price series is assembled from listings, and its stored annual rate of 17.8% runs to the first quarter of 2026. Asking prices lead transaction prices, and in a decelerating market the listing series tends to stay higher for longer. The confidence attached to the Portuguese price level is marked low for exactly this reason: it is an advertised-price aggregate, not a registry series.
On the 0-100 bubble-risk score calculated for each market, Portugal sits at 84, inside the high band. That is a statement about how far prices have run ahead of local incomes and rents, not a forecast of when they stop. Round-trip transaction costs in Portugal come to 11.2% of the purchase price, which is a real consideration for anyone whose holding period is short.
Sources: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica (INE), house price index second quarter 2026, released 22 September 2026, as reported by ECO https://eco.sapo.pt/2026/09/22/precos-da-habitacao-sobem-165-mas-dao-sinal-de-abrandamento/; Observador https://observador.pt/2026/09/22/precos-das-casas-abrandam-para-subida-de-165-no-segundo-trimestre-com-menos-64-de-transacoes/; Dinheiro Vivo https://dinheirovivo.dn.pt/economia/preos-das-casas-aumentaram-165-mesmo-com-quebra-de-64-nas-transaes