Portuguese Bank Valuations Rose 16.6% in June as Housing Licences Fell 6.9%
Portuguese bank valuations rose 16.6% in the year to June while housing licences fell 6.9%. New mortgage credit reached €12,153 million in the first half.
Three Portuguese housing numbers landed together on 28 August, and they disagree with each other in a way that defines the current market. The construction employers' association AICCOPN, in its half-year housing statistics summary reported by ECO and Lusa, recorded 9,836 licences issued for housing construction and rehabilitation through June — 6.9% fewer than a year earlier. Over the same period the median bank valuation used for mortgage lending rose 16.6% year on year, and new mortgage credit excluding renegotiations reached €12,153 million, up 11.3%.
Fewer permits, more homes
The licence count and the dwelling count moved apart. While the number of licences fell, the number of dwellings they covered rose 4% to 22,216. Portugal is not permitting fewer homes; it is permitting them inside a smaller number of larger applications. That shift toward bigger schemes shows up regionally too: in the North, 20,403 dwellings were licensed for new construction over the twelve months to June, 17% more than the preceding twelve. The unit mix there was 26% studios and one-bedroom homes, 31% two-bedroom, 37% three-bedroom and 6% with four bedrooms or more.
Valuations are running well ahead of everything else
The 16.6% median valuation increase is the number that should give buyers pause, because bank valuations are what mortgage sizing is anchored to. Apartments rose 18.3% and houses 15.2% — the gap between the two says the pressure is concentrated in urban, apartment-dominated stock rather than spread across the country evenly.
Credit is following. €12,153 million of new lending in six months, 11.3% up on the year, is a market where financing capacity is expanding into rising valuations rather than restraining them. That is the combination that historically precedes affordability stress rather than relieving it.
Where Glopra has Portugal
Our market file carries Portugal at $2,659 per square metre nationally with a gross rental yield of 4.29% and annual price growth of 17.8% — closely consistent with the valuation series above. Lisbon sits at $6,957 per square metre on a 3.76% gross yield, Porto at $4,617 on 3.96%.
Portugal's national Bubble Risk score is 84, placing it in our high band and among the most stretched markets we track anywhere. Lisbon scores 68 and Porto 72, both elevated. Notably, the national score sits above either city — on our methodology each market is measured against its own history, and the national series has moved further from its own baseline than the two capitals have.
Buyers should weigh that against real strengths: an effective tax on rental income of 10% in the standardised non-resident case, low by European standards, and total transaction costs near 11.2%. Portugal remains one of the more tax-efficient European markets for landlords. It is also, on our own methodology, one of the most expensively priced relative to local incomes — and a 16.6% annual jump in the valuations that banks lend against does nothing to ease that.
Sources: AICCOPN Síntese Estatística da Habitação via ECO/Lusa, 28 Aug 2026 https://eco.sapo.pt/2026/08/28/licencas-de-construcao-e-reabilitacao-habitacional-caem-69-ate-junho/